For anticipating critical transitions in complex dynamical systems, the recent approach of parameter-driven reservoir computing requires explicit knowledge of the bifurcation parameter. We articulate a framework combining a variational autoencoder (VAE) and reservoir computing to address this challenge. In particular, the driving factor is detected from time series using the VAE in an unsupervised-learning fashion and the extracted information is then used as the parameter input to the reservoir computer for anticipating the critical transition. We demonstrate the power of the unsupervised learning scheme using prototypical dynamical systems including the spatiotemporal Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system. The scheme can also be extended to scenarios where the target system is driven by several independent parameters or with partial state observations.

Complex and nonlinear dynamical systems often involve parameters that change with time, accurate tracking of which is essential to tasks such as state estimation, prediction, and control. Existing machine-learning methods require full state observation of the underlying system and tacitly assume adiabatic changes in the parameter. Formulating an inverse problem and exploiting reservoir computing, we develop a model-free and fully data-driven framework to accurately track time-varying parameters from partial state observation in real time. In particular, with training data from a subset of the dynamical variables of the system for a small number of known parameter values, the framework is able to accurately predict the parameter variations in time. Low- and high-dimensional, Markovian and non-Markovian nonlinear dynamical systems are used to demonstrate the power of the machine-learning based parameter-tracking framework. Pertinent issues affecting the tracking performance are addressed.

Robots deployed to the real world must be able to interact with other agents in their environment. Dynamic game theory provides a powerful mathematical framework for modeling scenarios in which agents have individual objectives and interactions evolve over time. However, a key limitation of such techniques is that they require a-priori knowledge of all players' objectives. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a novel method for learning players' objectives in continuous dynamic games from noise-corrupted, partial state observations. Our approach learns objectives by coupling the estimation of unknown cost parameters of each player with inference of unobserved states and inputs through Nash equilibrium constraints. By coupling past state estimates with future state predictions, our approach is amenable to simultaneous online learning and prediction in receding horizon fashion. We demonstrate our method in several simulated traffic scenarios in which we recover players' preferences for, e.g., desired travel speed and collision-avoidance behavior. Results show that our method reliably estimates game-theoretic models from noise-corrupted data that closely matches ground-truth objectives, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art approaches.